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02.06.2010

DJ В ФОКУСЕ: Достижение евро паритета с долларом - -2-

DJ В ФОКУСЕ: Достижение евро паритета с долларом - это только вопрос времени

 

Колонка Dow Jones Newswires, автор Николас Хастингс

ЛОНДОН, 2 июня. /Dow Jones/. Торговля евро стала слишком рискованной, и падение единой валюты к паритету с долларом США является только вопросом времени.

Падение евро будет продолжаться на фоне сохраняющейся неопределенности относительно способности стран еврозоны сократить бюджетные дефициты и относительно экономических и политических последствий общего плана помощи.

До настоящего времени единую европейскую валюту продавали в основном из-за роста стоимости займов, с которым столкнулись такие основные страны-должники еврозоны, как Греция, Испания и Португалия, в ходе переговоров с ЕС и Международным валютным фондом /МВФ/ о предоставлении помощи.

План помощи теперь принят, а доходности государственных облигаций стабилизировались. Тем не менее, понижательное давление на евро только усилилось.

См. график падения пары евро/доллар за последнее время:

В первую очередь возникают опасения относительно того, как долго правительства этих обремененных долгами стран смогут следовать политике жесткой экономии на фоне забастовок и общественных беспорядков.

Учитывая существующую структуру Евросоюза, другие страны ЕС почти не могут ничего предпринять для того, чтобы заставить эти обремененные долгами страны соблюдать правила в отношении бюджетного дефицита, кроме как исключить их из еврозоны и породить риск краха евро.

Не стоит забывать и про реальные последствия этой программы помощи.

С экономической точки зрения от этого плана пострадают не только страны-должники. Этим странам приходится проводить наиболее жесткие меры экономии. Однако другие страны еврозоны предоставляют финансовые средства для оказания помощи в ущерб собственным, имеющим проблемы экономикам.

Кроме того, банки еврозоны вряд ли будут оказывать поддержку. Если опасения Европейского центрального банка /ЕЦБ/ подтвердятся, они могут столкнуться с необходимостью списать дополнительные 200 млрд евро в ближайшие 18 месяцев, что

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

June 02, 2010 07:21 ET (11:21 GMT)

DJ В ФОКУСЕ: Достижение евро паритета с долларом - -2-

негативно отразится на стоимости привлечения средств и поспособствует сохранению жестких условий кредитования в еврозоне.

Другими словами, перспективы роста экономической активности в еврозоне, которые были и без того неблагоприятными, сейчас выглядят еще хуже.

Процентные ставки в еврозоне теперь, по всей видимости, будут оставаться на низких уровнях в течение еще более продолжительного, чем ожидалось, периода.

/Продолжение следует/

Dow Jones Newswires, ПРАЙМ-ТАСС

DJ Forex-NEWS

Forex Focus: Euro Parity With Dollar Only A Matter Of Time Now

By Nicholas Hastings

A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro has become a risk too far and it is now only a matter of time before the single currency sinks to parity against the U.S. dollar.

The euro is set to suffer because of continued uncertainty over the ability of euro zone states to reduce their deficits and from the economic and political fallout from the whole sovereign rescue plan.

Until now, the single currency was being sold primarily because of the rising borrowing costs that euro zone debtors--primarily Greece, Spain and Portugal--were facing as the European Union and the International Monetary Fund negotiated a bailout.

This bailout is now in place and yields have stabilized. But, selling pressure on the euro has, if anything, intensified.

See the euro's recent decline against the dollar:

First, there is concern over just how long the governments of these debtor countries will persist with austerity policies in the face of strikes and civil unrest.

Given the current structure of the European Union, there is little that other member states can do to force them to stick to deficit rules, other than to kick them out of the single currency bloc and risk a collapse in the euro.

Then, there is the actual fallout from the bailout.

Economically, not only debtor countries will suffer from the plan. They may be the ones implementing the harshest austerity measures but other euro zone countries, who are providing funds for the bailout, will do so at a cost to their own troubled economies.

Also, euro zone banks are hardly likely to help. If a European Central Bank warning is right, they could face another EUR200 billion of writedowns over the next 18 months, damaging their funding costs and keeping credit conditions in the euro zone tight.

In other words, the growth prospects for the euro zone, which were already poor before, are now looking even worse.

Euro zone interest rates are now set to stay at current low levels for even longer than expected.

This is hardly likely to play well in comparison with the dollar and the U.S. economy. As new employment numbers on Friday are expected to show, the U.S. recovery may be vulnerable to setbacks but a rise in non-farm payrolls will suggest that growth is finally gaining traction in the jobs market.

Compare this with the latest euro zone employment data Tuesday, showing the number of jobless in the region rose by another 25,000 in April, taking the unemployment rate up to 10.1%, nearly a 12-year high.

Possible political fallouts are also a growing problem for the single currency.

The political pressure that euro zone debtor governments are facing is one thing, but it is the impact on the politics of Germany that really matters.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has already paid a high political price for agreeing to the bailout and now, following the resignation of German President Horst Kohler, she could find her coalition is falling apart if small liberal partners refuse to sign up to tax hikes needed to fund the country's larger deficit.

But politics could also affect the ECB, where the central bank's recent decision to buy government bonds to help stabilize yields and prevent contagion isn't too popular.

Some officials are worried about the damage this additional policy easing will have on the central bank's credibility with Bundesbank President Axel Weber warning that any further purchases should be "limited."

All this suggests that the euro's role as a funding currency is here to stay and that the single currency won't be able to stage a sustainable recovery even when global sentiment improves and risk once again become more popular.

The risk of buying the euro will still be seen as too high.

Early Wednesday in Europe, the euro continued to sink against the dollar, falling to $1.2206 by 0645 GMT from $1.2237 late on Tuesday in New York, according to EBS.

The yen was under pressure after Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama resigned before Upper House elections next month. Finance Minister Naoto Kan is widely tipped to replace him on Friday but this could leave the yen under pressure both because Kan has suggested that he prefers a weaker currency and because there will still be uncertainty over how the government fares in the elections.

The dollar rose to Y91.47 from Y91.11 while the euro made it up to Y111.72 from Y111.44.

Overall, market sentiment has been boosted by a strong manufacturing ISM survey out of the U.S. Tuesday and news earlier Wednesday that Australia first quarter growth came in higher than expected at 2.7% on the year. The market had been looking for only 2.4%.

Bloomberg TNI FRX POV

Reuters USD/DJ

Thomson P/1066 or P/1074

(Nick Hastings has covered the foreign exchange markets and industry for over 20 years. Apart from his written commentary and analysis, he also appears on Fox Business News and CNBC television in Europe, Asia and the U.S. He can be contacted on +44-20-7842-9493 or by email: nick.hastings@dowjones.com)

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-06-10 0715GMT

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 02, 2010 07:21 ET (11:21 GMT)



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